TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 3:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:21h:51m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3PM-3:15PM ET

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1d 21h 51m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time. You'll also find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements and how much activity is occurring.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipating shifts before they are reflected in mainstream financial predictions, offering a potentially valuable alternative perspective on the future price of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the outcome as perceived by the traders on Predict, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available and opinions shift.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:00 PM and 3:15 PM Eastern Time on November 4, 2026. The market will determine if the price went up or down during that 15-minute window, and payouts will be awarded accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, significant shifts in inventory levels, disruptions to supply chains, or even unexpected weather events affecting oil production or transportation could all contribute to price volatility and, consequently, movement in this market.