TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 3:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:23h:50m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 23h 50m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market activity and understand where traders are placing their bets on the future direction of crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing price targets and directional guidance for crude oil, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate factors that aren’t always reflected in standard financial models or publicly available analysis. This difference can be particularly pronounced during periods of high uncertainty or rapidly changing geopolitical events.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a logarithmic scaling system to display probabilities, ensuring that even small changes in sentiment are visible. Traders can view the current 'yes' and 'no' probabilities, and use this information to inform their trading decisions.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on November 4th and the closing price at 3:45 PM ET on the same day. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and demand data from China could also influence trader sentiment. Any surprise news related to supply disruptions, such as pipeline outages or refinery issues, would likely cause substantial movement in this market as traders adjust their expectations for the crude oil price.