TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 3:15 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 3:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:36m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

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Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
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Outcome
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7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 36m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements in crude oil, and how much activity there is in this particular market. The dashboard offers a quick snapshot of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of many individual traders, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating shifts in sentiment more quickly. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can be more responsive to unexpected events or changes in market psychology. This difference can be valuable for understanding the range of possible outcomes and potential biases in each approach.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on the outcome, and the odds displayed represent the implied probability of each scenario. The more traders who believe the price will go up, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts will become, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:15 AM and 3:30 AM Eastern Time on November 4, 2026. The market will determine whether the price went up or down during that period, and the outcome will be based on publicly available price data at that time. The final price will be verified against credible public sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies, could cause substantial price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, major weather events impacting oil infrastructure, or significant shifts in the US dollar’s value, could all influence trader sentiment and drive price movements in this market.