TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 2:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:11h:26m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 11h 26m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T07:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T07:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. It also provides a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0, and the 24-hour volume is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations regarding future oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are issuing reports on potential crude oil price fluctuations, this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. This can lead to divergences, as prediction markets are often more responsive to real-time information and less prone to biases present in traditional forecasting. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, offering a unique insight into market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment, offering a forward-looking indicator of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil during the specified time window – November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET. The direction of the price change (up or down) will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant supporting data on Predict following the resolution.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or announcements regarding OPEC+ production policies are key catalysts. Macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth or inflation, can also influence crude oil prices. Additionally, any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could impact trader sentiment and drive price fluctuations in this market.