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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 12:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 02d:00h:50m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12PM-12:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 50m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll see the odds reflecting what traders are predicting, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment surrounding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and directional recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new developments, potentially reacting faster than consensus analyst estimates. Examining both sources can provide a more comprehensive view of potential crude oil price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price going up. Traders are constantly updating their positions, leading to dynamic price adjustments.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:00 PM ET and 12:15 PM ET on November 4th. The final price will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the price went up or down during that period. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the verified outcome.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting oil supply (such as conflicts or sanctions), and major economic data releases (like inflation or GDP figures) are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, shifts in global demand expectations, influenced by factors like Chinese economic growth or seasonal changes, could also drive price fluctuations. Any news that alters the perceived supply or demand balance for crude oil has the potential to impact trading activity in this market.