TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,884,820,873

413,109

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12AM-12:15AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 12:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12AM-12:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12AM-12:15AM ET - Predict

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Neutral

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·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:06h:41m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12AM-12:15AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 12AM-12:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 6h 41m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T05:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T05:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down, as determined by traders’ actions. You’ll find a price history showing how the market has priced in information over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are participating in predicting the future price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions, risk tolerances, or access to unique data. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in conventional forecasts, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price increasing, and lower prices indicating the opposite. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments to changing information.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:00 AM ET and 12:15 AM ET on November 4, 2026. If the price is higher at 12:15 AM ET than at 12:00 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East or Russia, would likely cause substantial price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even unexpected weather events impacting oil infrastructure, have the potential to move this market considerably before Nov 4, 2026.