TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$238,896,186

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,934,485

408,127

Markets across

39,552

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,429

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 1:15 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 1:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:09h:33m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

Predict isn't quoting a YES price right now Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 9h 33m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market activity and understand where the crowd stands on the direction of oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on complex economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when unexpected events occur or when there’s significant uncertainty surrounding future oil supply and demand. This market provides a unique, forward-looking indicator that isn’t always captured in standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations for crude oil.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:15 PM ET and 1:30 PM ET on November 4th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, based on publicly available price data from established financial sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases would likely cause substantial price swings. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in oil-producing regions or disruptions to key supply routes, could also move the market. Additionally, major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength could impact the price of crude oil, and therefore this market.