TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,922,627,141

420,368

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 1:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:05h:38m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 5h 38m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when subjective factors or ‘black swan’ events are likely to play a role. This market provides a real-time, quantifiable assessment of what traders believe will happen, which can be a valuable counterpoint to conventional wisdom.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price essentially represents the probability of the outcome occurring, as perceived by the traders on Predict. This dynamic pricing allows for rapid adjustments to new information and evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 1:15 AM and 1:30 AM ET on November 4th. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome. This market provides a way to forecast this short-term price movement based on collective predictions.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical developments in major oil-producing regions, such as conflicts or political instability, are key catalysts. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or any significant disruptions to oil supply (e.g., due to weather events or infrastructure failures), are likely to cause price fluctuations and shifts in this market.