TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 11:15 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 11:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:14h:25m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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1d 14h 25m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T16:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T16:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This provides a clear picture of how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic data and geopolitical factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. Discrepancies can arise from differing risk assessments or the market’s ability to rapidly adjust to new information. It's common to see the market assign probabilities to outcomes that analysts deem unlikely, and vice versa, showcasing a distinct view of potential future events.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:15 AM ET and 11:30 AM ET on November 4th. The final price will be compared to the opening price to determine whether the market resolves in favor of ‘Up’ or ‘Down’. The outcome is determined by publicly available price data and does not rely on any specific oracle or internal data feed.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, could cause price spikes or drops. Major economic data releases, like U.S. inventory reports or global GDP figures, can also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even unexpected weather events impacting oil infrastructure, could all serve as catalysts. Any news that alters the perceived supply or demand balance for crude oil has the potential to move this market substantially.