TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

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39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 10:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 10:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:21h:41m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 21h 41m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T03:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-05T03:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to see how much activity there is in this market and how traders are positioning themselves. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment and potential price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the future direction of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by new information, changing market conditions, and traders adjusting their positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time forecast of the probability of the crude oil price increasing or decreasing.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the change in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price between 10:30 PM and 10:45 PM ET on November 4th. The final price will be compared to the opening price to determine whether the market settles in the 'up' or 'down' direction. The outcome is determined by publicly available price data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected weather patterns affecting oil infrastructure could all influence trader sentiment and drive price fluctuations in this market.