TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
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predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 28, 2026, 10:15 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 10:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:13h:43m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 13h 43m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market – currently $0 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as the event approaches. The dashboard also highlights the most popular outcome currently favored by traders.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on complex economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of individuals actively trading on the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply a different interpretation of the same data. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially identifying overlooked factors or anticipating shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism that reflects the latest information and sentiment. This creates a market-driven forecast, distinct from static polls or expert opinions.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:15 AM ET and 10:30 AM ET on November 4th. The final price difference will determine whether the market settles as 'up' or 'down', reflecting the direction of the price movement during that timeframe. The outcome is determined by publicly available price data.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are all potential catalysts. Additionally, shifts in global economic growth forecasts, particularly in major economies like China and the United States, can influence oil demand and, consequently, the price. Any significant disruption to oil supply or a major change in demand expectations could lead to substantial price fluctuations.