TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

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40,408

events

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4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 9:30 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 9:45 PM EST
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T02:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T02:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard is updated frequently to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are making predictions about crude oil prices based on geopolitical factors and supply/demand models, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their money behind their beliefs. It’s common to see divergences between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. This difference in outlook can be a valuable signal for those following the oil market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the close of trading on November 3rd. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to expectations as new information becomes available, creating a constantly evolving assessment of the potential price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:30 PM and 9:45 PM Eastern Time on November 3rd. If the price is higher at 9:45 PM than at 9:30 PM, the ‘Up’ outcome will win; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected announcements regarding OPEC+ production cuts or increases would likely have a substantial impact. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will be closely watched. Finally, any significant disruptions to oil supply, such as weather-related events impacting production or transportation, could also drive movement in this market.