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414,484

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$369

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 3, 2026

Closed: Nov 3, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$369
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current implied probabilities of the price going up or down, as determined by traders. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $369, and the total volume traded to date, which is $369. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how quickly opinions are changing on Predict.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market is being formed by traders on Predict. It’s often insightful to compare these predictions to those of financial analysts and traditional polls. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates a probability distribution, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the future price movement. It’s worth noting that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and incentives than traditional forecasting methods, potentially leading to different conclusions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of contracts betting on that outcome will rise. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as conditions change.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:30 AM and 9:45 AM Eastern Time on November 3, 2026. The direction of the price movement – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome for this market.

Several factors could significantly impact the crude oil price movement and, therefore, this market. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also influence prices. Unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or shifts in the US dollar’s strength are other potential drivers that traders will be watching closely.