TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 7:00 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 7:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:01h:48m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 1h 48m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market provides a real-time view of trader sentiment. You’ll find the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows participants to quickly assess the market’s direction and activity, informing their own predictions and trading strategies.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting a continued rise in oil prices due to geopolitical factors, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on specific models and assumptions, whereas the prediction market aggregates the insights of numerous individuals, potentially leading to a more accurate overall assessment of the future price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on new information and changing sentiment, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of expectations. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, which influences the overall market price.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at the specified time. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down from the starting price – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after resolution.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Any unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels would likely have a major impact. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in oil-producing regions, could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Furthermore, economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will be closely watched. Finally, major weather events that disrupt oil production or transportation could also influence the direction of this market.