TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 5:15 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 5:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:02h:41m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
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1d 2h 41m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down by Nov 3, 2026. You’ll find a real-time view of the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected demand shifts. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are fully reflected in consensus analyst expectations, offering a potentially leading indicator of price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by Nov 3, 2026. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, providing a dynamic assessment of market sentiment. This creates a real-time, market-driven forecast.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:15 PM and 5:30 PM Eastern Time on November 3, 2026. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict shortly after the close of trading.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, is a key factor. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases could also cause substantial price swings. Furthermore, shifts in global economic growth expectations, particularly in major consumers like China and the United States, will influence demand forecasts. Finally, unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, like major pipeline outages or natural disasters, could also drive volatility in this market.