TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

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40,213

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 4:15 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 4:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 21h:57m:49s

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
21h 57m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T21:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T21:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s predictions have shifted over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of trader sentiment regarding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of information and perspectives. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when unexpected events or “black swan” scenarios are anticipated. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, providing a broader view of potential outcomes for the crude oil price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different outcomes for the crude oil price.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the specified 4:15PM-4:30PM ET window on November 3rd. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that period, and that result will be the basis for settling all outstanding contracts in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also have a substantial impact. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen weather events that might affect oil production or transportation could drive price fluctuations and, consequently, shift the odds in this market.