TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 3:45 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:01h:16m

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
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1d 1h 16m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total group volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market activity and understand where traders are placing their bets regarding future oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions, risk tolerances, and the ability of the market to rapidly adjust to new information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, offering a potentially leading indicator of price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower on November 3rd. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing means the odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, creating a real-time assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider during the specified timeframe of 3:45 PM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time on November 3rd. The direction of the price change, compared to the price at the market’s opening, will determine which outcome is considered correct.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), can also drive price movements. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure could create volatility and shift the odds in this market.