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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 3:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 20h:08m:20s

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20h 8m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You can view the odds of each outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on complex economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard analyses. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, or to assign different probabilities to various scenarios.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly updating the implied probabilities. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price at 3:30 PM ET and the closing price at 3:45 PM ET on November 3, 2026. The direction of the price change will determine whether the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome is considered correct for this market.

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding inventory levels, refinery activity, or shifts in energy policy could influence trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market. Keep an eye on these developments as the resolution date approaches.