TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 2:30 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 2:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 05h:53m:49s

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5h 53m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T07:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T07:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to this specific commodity.

Currently, the collective predictions within this market offer a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil prices. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. It's worth noting that prediction market outcomes often demonstrate greater accuracy than those from polls or individual expert opinions, particularly when considering short-term price movements. However, discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment surrounding crude oil.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil during the 2:30AM-2:45AM ET window on November 3rd. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that period, and the outcome will be based on that verified change. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift sentiment. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant news regarding supply chain issues or refining capacity could cause substantial price movements and, consequently, impact trading activity in this market.