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407,043

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 9:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T02:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T02:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur or when there’s significant uncertainty surrounding the factors influencing the price of crude oil. This difference can be valuable for identifying potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the relative prices of the 'up' and 'down' contracts, offering a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:15 PM ET and 9:30 PM ET on November 2nd. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window, and that result will be the final outcome of this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could all cause substantial price swings. Additionally, broader economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth rates, can influence market sentiment and impact trading activity in this market. Any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, like natural disasters or pipeline outages, would also be key catalysts.