TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$341

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the implied probability of the price moving up or down, based on trading activity. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $342. The total volume traded on this market is $341. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it’s changing in real-time, providing insight into what traders believe will happen with crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. This often leads to a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. The market’s dynamic nature means it can quickly adjust to new information, potentially reacting faster than slower-moving analyst reports. It's important to consider both sources when forming your own opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the crude oil price movement. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades reward correct assessments. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that aims to represent the most up-to-date market sentiment regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM Eastern Time on November 2, 2026. A price increase will result in a positive outcome, while a price decrease will result in a negative outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any significant disruptions to oil supply, like refinery outages or pipeline issues, could drive price fluctuations. Keep an eye on these developments as they unfold, as they will likely influence trading activity and the overall sentiment reflected in this market.