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419,492

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-6PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-6PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-6PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 6:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-6PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$5
N/A
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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This information helps traders gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating shifts in sentiment faster. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unforeseen events or ‘black swan’ scenarios are considered likely. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the range of possible outcomes and the market’s overall risk assessment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to rapidly adjust to new information and changing expectations, offering a real-time assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a recognized exchange. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to view the final resolution details on Predict following the event.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), will also play a role. Unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) or shifts in the US dollar's strength could also cause substantial price movements. Any news impacting supply or demand fundamentals has the potential to shift trader sentiment and alter the odds in this market.