TOTAL VOLUME:

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2,984,640,614

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

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5

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37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$181

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 5:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current implied probabilities of the price going up or down, as determined by traders. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total 24-hour volume of $181. The total volume traded on this market is currently $181. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how confidence in either direction is evolving leading up to the event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While some analysts predict a stable price, this market indicates a higher degree of uncertainty regarding the short-term price movement. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and allow participants to weigh information dynamically. This market represents the collective wisdom of those willing to put capital behind their beliefs, which can sometimes diverge from expert opinions or polls focused on the same question.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will go up, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the evolving consensus of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the crude oil price between 5:30 AM and 5:45 AM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 5:45 AM ET than at 5:30 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or political instability, could cause substantial price swings. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also influence investor sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration are key catalysts that traders will be closely watching. Any surprise developments in these areas could lead to rapid shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.