TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$125

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $125, and the total volume traded to date, which is $125. This information allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements in this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, access to information, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially leading indicator of price direction.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome determined by comparing the crude oil price at 3:45AM-4:00AM ET on November 2nd to the price at the market’s open. The final price will be verified against credible public reporting from established financial data providers. The market will settle to 100 if the price is higher, and 0 if it is lower. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Predict shortly after the relevant price data is publicly available.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in major oil-producing regions, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or shifts in US oil inventory levels reported by the EIA, are closely watched. Any surprise developments in these areas could lead to substantial changes in the odds within this market.