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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of November 2, 2PM-2:15PM ET. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and track trading activity related to this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different view than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the direction of crude oil prices. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical factors, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available to or fully considered by traditional analysts. This provides a unique perspective on potential outcomes, and differs from simple polling data which may not reflect informed opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to a specific outcome, offering a real-time assessment of expectations. Trading volume and order book depth also influence price discovery in this market.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:00 PM ET and 2:15 PM ET on November 2, 2024. A price increase will result in a positive outcome, while a price decrease will result in a negative outcome, as determined by publicly available market data at that time.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts could all influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected disruptions to oil supply chains, such as weather events or pipeline outages, are all potential catalysts that could lead to substantial price fluctuations and shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.