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417,059

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:45PM-3PM ET

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N/A
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$0
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Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded – currently $0 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has priced in information over time. This provides a dynamic view of where traders believe the price is headed.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, or to demonstrate a stronger conviction in a particular direction than typical polls suggest.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the close of trading on November 2nd. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants and adjusts rapidly to new information or shifts in opinion. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of future outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM Eastern Time on November 2nd. The direction of price movement (up or down) relative to the opening price will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and weekly crude oil storage data are closely watched. Finally, any significant weather events that threaten oil production or refining capacity could also drive price fluctuations in this market.