TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$55

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $55, and the 24-hour volume, which is $55. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and events as they unfold and gauge the overall sentiment surrounding future crude oil prices.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market offers a distinct perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide point estimates or ranges for crude oil prices, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. Often, prediction markets can provide an earlier signal of changing expectations than traditional forecasts, as they react in real-time to new information. It’s a useful exercise to compare the implied probability of an increase in crude oil prices from this market against the consensus view of energy analysts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and trader sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:45 AM and 3:00 AM Eastern Time on November 2, 2026. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that period, and that determination will be verified against credible public sources.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, developments in alternative energy sources or significant shifts in inventory levels could influence trader sentiment and move the price of crude oil. Any news affecting supply or demand fundamentals has the potential to shift the probabilities reflected in this market.