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408,349

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$35
N/A
N/A
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N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the future direction of crude oil prices, offering insights into collective predictions.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for crude oil prices, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probabilistic forecast. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information more rapidly than traditional forecasts, especially regarding unexpected events or shifts in sentiment. Examining these differences can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, constantly refining the market’s assessment of the future price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between the opening price on November 2nd and the closing price at 2:45 PM ET on the same day. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result shortly after the close of trading.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also play a role. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels can cause substantial price swings. Even weather patterns, especially those impacting oil transportation, could introduce volatility and shift the probabilities within this market.