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416,910

Markets across

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows you to see how traders are collectively forecasting the direction of oil prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments than traditional forecasts. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential biases.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower on November 2nd. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the relative prices of the 'up' and 'down' contracts, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:15 PM ET and 2:30 PM ET on November 2nd. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that specific timeframe, based on publicly available data from a recognized financial exchange.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, would likely have a substantial impact. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data or US GDP figures), could also shift expectations. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even unexpected weather events impacting oil infrastructure, could all contribute to volatility in this market.