TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$137

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$137
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T07:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T07:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $134, and the total volume traded to date, which is $137. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific commodity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to unique data. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more the price will converge towards a clear indication of the expected outcome. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, reacting to news and events that could influence the price of crude oil.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:15 AM and 2:30 AM Eastern Time on November 2nd. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or significant inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, are likely to cause price fluctuations and shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.