TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$30

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $30. The total volume traded to date is $30. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental factors like supply and demand reports, this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in market sentiment occur. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions can reveal valuable insights into the range of possible outcomes and the level of uncertainty surrounding the crude oil price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the close of trading on November 2nd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. Traders are essentially betting on their predictions, and the collective action of these bets determines the market’s overall forecast for the crude oil price.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:00 PM ET and 1:15 PM ET on November 2nd. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major geopolitical developments in oil-producing regions, such as conflicts or political instability, are key catalysts. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), and inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are likely to influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.