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410,833

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 1AM-1:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$105

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 1AM-1:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 1AM-1:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 1:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 1AM-1:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$30
$105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T06:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T06:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of November 2, 1AM-1:15AM ET. You can view the real-time odds, track the price history of this market, and see the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $105 and the overall volume is $105. This provides a snapshot of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movement.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting a continued increase in oil prices due to geopolitical factors, this market’s odds reflect a more nuanced view. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those offered by conventional sources, as prediction markets incorporate a broader range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This difference highlights the potential value of considering prediction market data alongside traditional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the implied probability is derived from the contract prices. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adapt to new information and changing expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between the close of trading on November 1, and 1:15 AM ET on November 2. A positive change indicates the price went up, and a negative change indicates the price went down. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major geopolitical developments in oil-producing regions, such as conflicts or production cuts announced by OPEC+, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding supply disruptions, such as pipeline outages or refinery issues, could cause the odds to change rapidly. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential price movements.