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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$30
N/A
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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down, as determined by traders’ wagers. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time. You can see the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to gauge market interest and how quickly opinions are changing leading up to the event.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market is being formed by traders on Predict. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on models and published reports. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those offered by experts, as this market reflects a broader range of information and incentives. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors, this market incorporates real-time information and the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a more dynamic view of expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and strategic trading activity, creating a constantly updating assessment of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:00 PM ET and 12:15 PM ET on November 2nd. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, could cause substantial price swings. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, will also be closely watched. Additionally, any surprising news regarding oil inventories or refinery capacity could influence trader sentiment and move the market. Finally, even significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure could play a role in shifting probabilities.