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419,363

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 12:45AM-1AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$11

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 12:45AM-1AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 12:45AM-1AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 1:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 12:45AM-1AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. It also displays the trading volume over both the last 24 hours, currently at $11, and the total volume traded to date, which is $11. You can also view a price history chart to see how the market has been pricing in different outcomes over time. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is shifting.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While many analysts are predicting a continued rise in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and production cuts, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on specific models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. This allows for a dynamic assessment of probabilities that may differ from static predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the close of trading. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, offering a forward-looking indicator distinct from spot prices or futures contracts. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to a dynamic and responsive market.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 12:45 AM and 1:00 AM ET on November 2nd. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. This provides a clear and objective basis for determining the result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected announcements regarding OPEC+ production policy, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts could all impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any disruptions to oil supply due to weather events or infrastructure issues could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Any news that alters the perceived supply or demand balance for crude oil has the potential to shift the odds in this market.