TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$181,481,432

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,827,991,073

405,996

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40,551

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,368

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 11:45PM-12AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Oct 26, 2026, 11:45 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 11:45PM-12AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 11:45PM-12AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 12h:35m:01s

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 11:45PM-12AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 11:45PM-12AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12h 35m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T04:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T04:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has been pricing in different outcomes over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of trader sentiment regarding future crude oil price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence. This can lead to divergences, particularly when unforeseen events or ‘black swan’ scenarios are anticipated. It’s common to see this market react more quickly to new information than consensus analyst estimates, offering a potentially more dynamic view of future price movements. Comparing this market to polls and expert opinions can reveal valuable insights into differing expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and the implied probability is derived from the contract prices. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the specified 11:45 PM - 12:00 AM ET timeframe on November 2nd. The direction of the price change—up or down—will determine the winning outcome. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result, based on widely recognized market data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength can influence trader sentiment. Unforeseen weather events impacting oil production or transportation could also drive price fluctuations in this market.