TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur or sentiment shifts rapidly. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the collective assessment of the likelihood of the crude oil price moving up or down.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of the crude oil price increasing or decreasing. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people bet on a particular outcome, the price of that outcome’s contract will increase, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 10:15 AM ET and 10:30 AM ET on November 2nd. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also influence prices. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant shifts in currency exchange rates, especially the US dollar, are likely to move this market. Any unforeseen supply shocks or changes in global economic outlook could also play a role.