TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

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2,984,640,614

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416,910

Markets across

40,107

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5

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37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 9PM-9:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$261

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 9PM-9:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 9PM-9:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 9:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 9PM-9:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$261
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $260. The total volume traded to date is $261. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions. The dashboard provides a dynamic snapshot of where the crowd stands on the future direction of oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental factors like supply and demand, geopolitical events, and economic indicators, this market incorporates a broader range of information and collective intelligence. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly in the short term, as the market reacts to news and events more quickly than many published reports. This can provide a valuable alternative viewpoint when assessing the potential movement of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic price discovery process. The current implied probabilities are influenced by factors like global economic conditions, OPEC decisions, and unexpected supply disruptions.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on November 1st and the closing price at 9:15 PM ET. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome of this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result shortly after the close of trading.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC regarding production cuts or increases would likely have a substantial impact. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions, could also cause price volatility. Furthermore, significant economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data or US GDP figures), could shift market sentiment. Finally, any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, such as a major pipeline outage or natural disaster, could also lead to price fluctuations.