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410,482

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$352

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 9:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T02:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T02:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $347, and the total volume traded to date, which is $352. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick understanding of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives and potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to unique data. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into the overall outlook for crude oil prices and highlight areas of potential disagreement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a dynamic odds calculation, meaning the probabilities are constantly updated as new trades are placed, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations. This creates a liquid and efficient market for forecasting the direction of crude oil.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price between 9:30 PM and 9:45 PM Eastern Time on November 1st. If the price is higher at 9:45 PM than at 9:30 PM, the 'Up' outcome prevails; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome is considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected disruptions to oil supply chains, such as weather events or pipeline outages, could also influence trading activity and shift the odds in either direction. Traders will be closely monitoring these factors.