TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$290,393,159

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2,984,640,614

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

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4,612

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5

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37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 8:45PM-9PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$169

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 8:45PM-9PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 8:45PM-9PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 9:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 8:45PM-9PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$30
$169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T01:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T01:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $168, and the total volume traded to date, which is $169. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, varying risk appetites, or the inclusion of non-public information by traders. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price going up. Traders constantly adjust their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the final settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a recognized exchange during the specified timeframe. The direction of the price change – whether it went up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict shortly after the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, significant shifts in inventory levels, disruptions to supply chains, or even weather-related events impacting oil production or transportation could all influence trader sentiment and cause the odds to shift. Monitoring these signals is crucial for anyone participating in this market.