TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Elections
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$591

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 8:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$30
$591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T01:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T01:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $587, and the total volume traded to date, which is $591. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 8:30 PM and 8:45 PM ET on November 1st. Specifically, the market will determine if the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand and inventory levels, can also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases will likely have a substantial impact. Any surprise announcements or shifts in these areas could lead to significant changes in the perceived probability of the crude oil price going up or down.