TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

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4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$468

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 7:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded – currently $468 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $460. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has priced in information over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for the price of crude oil, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and react to shifts in sentiment that may not be immediately reflected in analyst reports. This difference highlights the unique value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at the specified time. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome of this market. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price and the resulting payouts shortly after the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions to oil supply in major producing regions, are a key catalyst. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth figures), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels or policy changes are closely watched. Even weather patterns, especially those affecting oil transportation, could influence trading activity in this market.