TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:45PM-12AM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$553

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:45PM-12AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:45PM-12AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 12:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:45PM-12AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$553
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $553—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $549. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s expectations have shifted over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the future direction of crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events or sentiment shifts influence trader behavior. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market perceptions and potential blind spots in conventional analysis. This is especially true when considering short-term price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty and conviction surrounding the future price of crude oil, offering a dynamic assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the specified 11:45 PM - 12:00 AM ET timeframe on November 1st. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized exchange and used to determine whether the price moved up or down, settling the contracts accordingly.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also drive price movements. Furthermore, shifts in inventory levels, refinery outages, and even weather patterns affecting oil transportation could all influence trader sentiment and cause the market to react. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the crude oil price market.