TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$141

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 11:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$141
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $140. The total volume traded to date is $141. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this particular prediction market. The dashboard also displays price history, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for the future price of crude oil, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly when significant uncertainty exists or when analysts have conflicting opinions. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into the range of possible outcomes and the degree of confidence surrounding them.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds constantly adapt to new information and changing market sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil during the 11:30PM-11:45PM ET window on November 1st, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will determine whether the price went up or down during that timeframe, and the corresponding contracts will be settled accordingly.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also play a role. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases could cause substantial price swings. Finally, any significant weather events impacting oil infrastructure, like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, could move this market.