TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$575

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 11:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$30
$575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T04:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $567, and the total volume traded to date, which is $575. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment regarding the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to unique data. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst expectations, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective judgment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The implied probability of each outcome is derived from the contract prices, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to new information and evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at the specified time. The direction of the price change – up or down – relative to the price at the start of the 11:15PM-11:30PM ET window will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels or policy changes are closely watched. Even weather patterns, especially those affecting major oil transportation routes, could contribute to price fluctuations and movement in this market.