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406,065

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2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 13?
kalshi
polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 13?

Volume:
$1,325,078

$98 or above

 - Kalshi

$98 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 14, 2026

Closed: Mar 13, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$98 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$411,309
N/A
N/A
$147,913
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 13?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,070
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$84.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$161,249
N/A
N/A
$67,142
Settled
No
kalshi

$97 to 97.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,360
N/A
N/A
$48,464
Settled
No
kalshi

$95 to 95.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79,492
N/A
N/A
$56,609
Settled
No
kalshi

$94 to 94.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74,638
N/A
N/A
$46,251
Settled
No
kalshi

$96 to 96.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74,185
N/A
N/A
$49,409
Settled
No
kalshi

$93 to 93.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,181
N/A
N/A
$43,447
Settled
No
kalshi

$92 to 92.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,899
N/A
N/A
$38,948
Settled
No
kalshi

$91 to 91.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$53,417
N/A
N/A
$34,736
Settled
No
kalshi

$90 to 90.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,989
N/A
N/A
$33,237
Settled
No
kalshi

$89 to 89.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,093
N/A
N/A
$30,310
Settled
No
kalshi

$85 to 85.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42,013
N/A
N/A
$28,817
Settled
No
kalshi

$88 to 88.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,608
N/A
N/A
$28,468
Settled
No
kalshi

$86 to 86.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,300
N/A
N/A
$28,535
Settled
No
kalshi

$87 to 87.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,275
N/A
N/A
$28,279
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) futures will close higher or lower on March 13, 2026. Kalshi's market resolves to Yes for a wide range of price levels, while Polymarket's market resolves based on directional movement (Up/Down) relative to the previous trading day's settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses absolute price-band resolution (15 overlapping ranges covering $85–$98+), while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day directional resolution. The two markets measure fundamentally different outcomes and will not necessarily align.Hero tip: Treat these as separate bets. Kalshi's Yes is highly likely given the broad price coverage; Polymarket's outcome depends on whether March 13 closes above or below March 12. Check the March 12 settlement price to forecast Polymarket direction. Do not cross-hedge these markets assuming they resolve identically.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Absolute price-band resolution. Resolves Yes if front-month WTI settle on March 13, 2026 falls within any of 15 specified ranges: below $85.00, $85.00–$97.99 (in $1.00 increments), or above $97.99. Covers nearly all realistic outcomes. Key Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 13, 2026 is between $88.00 and $88.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Relative directional resolution. Resolves Up if March 13 front-month settlement > March 12 front-month settlement; Down if lower. Uses CME official settlement price only. If active month changes between March 12 and March 13, uses same contract month as March 12. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if...the official CME settlement price for the Active Month...is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.