TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 13?
Volume:
$1,325,078
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) futures will close higher or lower on March 13, 2026. Kalshi's market resolves to Yes for a wide range of price levels, while Polymarket's market resolves based on directional movement (Up/Down) relative to the previous trading day's settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses absolute price-band resolution (15 overlapping ranges covering $85–$98+), while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day directional resolution. The two markets measure fundamentally different outcomes and will not necessarily align.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate bets. Kalshi's Yes is highly likely given the broad price coverage; Polymarket's outcome depends on whether March 13 closes above or below March 12. Check the March 12 settlement price to forecast Polymarket direction. Do not cross-hedge these markets assuming they resolve identically.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Absolute price-band resolution. Resolves Yes if front-month WTI settle on March 13, 2026 falls within any of 15 specified ranges: below $85.00, $85.00–$97.99 (in $1.00 increments), or above $97.99. Covers nearly all realistic outcomes. Key Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on March 13, 2026 is between $88.00 and $88.99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Relative directional resolution. Resolves Up if March 13 front-month settlement > March 12 front-month settlement; Down if lower. Uses CME official settlement price only. If active month changes between March 12 and March 13, uses same contract month as March 12. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if...the official CME settlement price for the Active Month...is higher than the previous trading day's official settlement price.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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