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Critical Discord Incident by...?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Critical Discord Incident by...?

Volume:
$4,570

September 30

 - Polymarket

September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 6, 2026

Closed: Aug 6, 2:18 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 30

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$329
N/A
N/A
N/A
6h 8m
Yes
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether Discord will experience at least one incident officially classified as Critical (red severity) on its status page by June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome "Yes" currently stands at 31.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Discord status classifications published on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history, with credible reporting used as a secondary source if needed. Watch for any service disruptions or outages that Discord designates as Critical severity before the June 30, 2026 deadline at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical. Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Discord impact classifications of Major (orange) and Critical (red) are not equivalent.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Critical Discord Incident by June 30 event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that a critical incident affecting Discord will occur by Sep 30, 2026, along with 24-hour trading volume of $274 and total group volume of $4,570. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment, price history, and trader positioning, allowing you to monitor how confidence in this outcome shifts as new information emerges about Discord's infrastructure, security posture, and operational stability.

The market resolves on Sep 30, 2026, marking the end of the prediction window for a critical Discord incident. Resolution hinges on whether a qualifying incident—such as a major service outage, significant security breach, or operational failure—occurs before that date. The determination is based on verified reports from Discord's official communications, credible technology news sources, and documented evidence of the incident's severity and scope. Traders should monitor Discord's status page, official announcements, and reputable tech media throughout the period to track developments that could influence the final outcome.

Several catalysts could shift odds on this market. Major security vulnerabilities disclosed in Discord's codebase or infrastructure would likely increase incident probability. Large-scale outages or service degradations affecting millions of users would be immediate triggers. Regulatory actions, DDoS attacks, or insider threats could also drive price movement. Conversely, positive signals—such as Discord publishing robust security audits, upgrading infrastructure resilience, or announcing redundancy improvements—might lower odds. Competitor incidents or industry-wide platform failures could raise baseline risk perception. Trader sentiment often responds quickly to Discord's hiring announcements, funding news, or leadership changes that signal operational health or vulnerability.