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CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?
kalshi

CPI year-over-year in Sep 2026?

Volume:
$162,549

Exactly 3.7%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.7% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$34,214
N/A
N/A
$13,436
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.8%

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,050
N/A
N/A
$35,308
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,634
N/A
N/A
$15,547
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,798
N/A
N/A
$8,113
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,123
N/A
N/A
$8,775
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.9%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,127
N/A
N/A
$7,151
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,669
N/A
N/A
$2,390
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,795
N/A
N/A
$2,795
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,234
N/A
N/A
$1,462
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,424
N/A
N/A
$600
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.2%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,417
N/A
N/A
$1,307
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,322
N/A
N/A
$1,002
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,220
N/A
N/A
$550
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,125
N/A
N/A
$324
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$360
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.3%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.2%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.1%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks whether the U.S. Consumer Price Index year-over-year inflation rate will reach exactly 3.1% in September 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 49.5%, with the alternative outcome also at 49.5%. The market will resolve based on the official CPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders should monitor the inflation trajectory through summer 2026, as the September CPI release on October 14, 2026 will determine the final settlement.

Kalshi

If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.0% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.1% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.3% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.4% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.5% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.6% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.7% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.8% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.9% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.0% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.1% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.2% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.3% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.4% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.5% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for inflation. While economists and financial institutions publish CPI predictions, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to accurately forecast the September 2026 CPI. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to unique information. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own outlook, but this market provides a unique, forward-looking signal based on actual monetary commitments.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different CPI outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their own analysis and expectations, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various CPI scenarios, driven by the collective intelligence of those trading in the market.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official September 2026 CPI data is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders will look to this data to determine the winning contract and finalize the market's outcome, based on the published CPI figures.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, unexpected changes in energy prices, geopolitical events affecting supply chains, and significant labor market fluctuations are all potential catalysts. Stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected economic growth data released in the coming months could also influence trader sentiment. Any news that alters expectations about future inflation will likely cause the odds in this market to shift, reflecting the evolving outlook for the September 2026 CPI.