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CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
kalshi

CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?

Volume:
$65,830

Exactly 3.4%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 3.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,016
N/A
N/A
$16,647
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,224
N/A
N/A
$12,512
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,354
N/A
N/A
$9,463
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,942
N/A
N/A
$5,005
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.2%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,995
N/A
N/A
$4,209
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,634
N/A
N/A
$1,475
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.1%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$800
N/A
N/A
$444
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$531
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$282
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$231
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$216
N/A
N/A
$192
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.5%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$189
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$59
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$71
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.9%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.6%

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
$55
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
$54
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.0%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.7%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.5%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.4%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks whether U.S. year-over-year inflation will reach exactly 2.8% in August 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 49.5%, with the alternative outcome also at 49.5%. Resolution will be determined by the official CPI year-over-year figure released for August 2026, according to Kalshi's resolution source. Traders should monitor the inflation data release scheduled for September 11, 2026, which will settle this contract.

Kalshi

If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.0% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.1% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.6% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.7% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.8% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.9% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.0% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.1% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.6% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.7% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.8% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.9% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.0% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.1% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.2% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.3% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.4% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.5% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the August 2026 year-over-year CPI outcome on Kalshi. You can monitor the current implied probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and trading volume to understand how the market is pricing inflation expectations. The dashboard displays $65,830 in total group volume, giving you a snapshot of overall market participation and liquidity for this economic indicator event.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from consensus analyst forecasts. While traditional economists publish CPI expectations through surveys and reports, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment and uncertainty pricing. Comparing the market's implied probability to median analyst estimates can reveal whether traders expect inflation to differ from mainstream expectations. This divergence often highlights where market participants see asymmetric risk or information gaps in official forecasts.

The CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026 market resolves on Sep 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official year-over-year Consumer Price Index figure released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for August 2026. The actual CPI print will be compared against the contract terms to settle all positions. Traders should monitor the BLS release calendar and economic data leading up to that date to assess how inflation trends may influence the final outcome.

Several factors could shift CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026 odds before resolution. Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate changes directly influence inflation expectations. Energy prices, particularly oil, affect headline CPI significantly. Labor market strength, wage growth, and supply-chain disruptions all feed into price pressures. Major geopolitical events, trade policy shifts, or commodity shocks could reshape inflation forecasts. Additionally, prior monthly CPI releases and core inflation trends in the months leading to August 2026 will provide real data points that traders use to refine their probability estimates.