TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?
kalshi

CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?

Volume:
$78,546

Exactly 0.6%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 0.6% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 0.6%

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,688
N/A
N/A
$8,833
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 0.4%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,990
N/A
N/A
$9,867
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.5%

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,092
N/A
N/A
$11,714
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.7%

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,877
N/A
N/A
$7,164
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.3%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,694
N/A
N/A
$526
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,974
N/A
N/A
$1,747
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.1%

View
0%
96%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.0%

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
$17
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.2%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.1%

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks whether the Consumer Price Index will rise by exactly 0.5% month-over-month in September 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—a 0.5% month-over-month increase—stands at 50.0%, while an alternative outcome holds 23.0% probability. The market resolves according to the official CPI month-over-month figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recent context suggests the September reading will likely fall between -0.2% and 0.6%, making the exact 0.5% threshold a pivotal benchmark to watch when the CPI report publishes on October 14, 2026.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the month-over-month Consumer Price Index value for September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measured to one decimal place. The event resolves to Yes if the CPI change falls within the specified range of outcomes, each representing a distinct percentage point value from -0.2% through 0.6%.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds reflect expectations about the September 2026 CPI that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize participants to express their true beliefs. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows for a probabilistic assessment of various potential CPI figures. Comparing this market’s implied probabilities to surveys of economists can reveal interesting insights into collective wisdom and potential biases.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different CPI outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations for the September 2026 CPI, driven entirely by trader activity.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official CPI data for September 2026 is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the month-over-month percentage change in the CPI as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome matches the actual CPI change. This allows for a clear and objective determination of the market's outcome, based on established economic data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and its resolution. Major economic reports leading up to September 2026, such as employment figures, GDP growth, and other inflation indicators, will likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could also have a substantial impact. Changes in commodity prices, particularly energy costs, are another key driver of inflation and could move this market. Any news suggesting a significant change in the economic outlook is likely to be reflected in trading activity.