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CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?
kalshi

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

Volume:
$148,596

Exactly 0.1%

 - Kalshi

Exactly 0.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Exactly 0.1%

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,352
N/A
N/A
$7,344
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 0.0%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,942
N/A
N/A
$36,471
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.1%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,809
N/A
N/A
$31,854
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,147
N/A
N/A
$20,343
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,913
N/A
N/A
$8,652
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,955
N/A
N/A
$7,301
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.3%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,616
N/A
N/A
$4,392
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,012
N/A
N/A
$3,697
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 0.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,469
N/A
N/A
$1,468
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly -0.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,382
N/A
N/A
$1,275
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether the Consumer Price Index will decline by exactly 0.2% month-over-month in July 2026. On Kalshi, the Yes outcome is at 50.0%, with the No outcome also at 50.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official CPI month-over-month figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Watch for the CPI release scheduled for August 12, 2026, which will settle this market based on whether the month-over-month change matches the exact -0.2% threshold.

Kalshi

If the CPI month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly -0.1% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.0% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.1% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.2% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.4% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.5% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI month-over-month is exactly 0.6% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, CPI month-over-month in July 2026 is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting trader consensus on the inflation print. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price directly translates to an implied probability: higher prices indicate traders expect a particular outcome (e.g., CPI above or below a threshold), while lower prices suggest lower conviction. Volume and bid-ask spreads on Kalshi show liquidity and certainty around the expected July figure. As the resolution date approaches and new economic data emerges, prices adjust to reflect updated inflation expectations.

The market resolves on Aug 12, 2026, after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official July 2026 Consumer Price Index report. The outcome is determined by the actual month-over-month percentage change in the CPI, which measures inflation across a broad basket of consumer goods and services. This is a data-driven resolution tied to a single, authoritative government release, ensuring an objective settlement. Traders should monitor the BLS calendar for the exact announcement time and any revisions to prior months that might affect interpretation.

Key drivers of July 2026 CPI include Federal Reserve policy decisions, energy and commodity prices, labor market strength, and wage growth. Supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical shocks, or shifts in consumer demand could push inflation higher or lower. Monthly employment reports, producer prices, and housing costs all feed into the final CPI figure. Market participants will also watch Fed communications and inflation expectations surveys for clues about monetary policy direction. Any surprise in core or headline components—food, energy, shelter—can trigger sharp repricing of odds as traders update their forecasts ahead of the official release.